ANALYSIS-Tepid recovery seen for Canada's housing market

TORONTO, July 1 (Reuters) - The worst of Canada's housing market woes appear to be past but the sector's rebound will be tenuous as a rise in mortgage rates and high unemployment limit the recovery in prices and sales.

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Property experts say first-time buyers and Bank of Canada rate cuts have helped restore stability to a market that slumped from late 2008 to early this year, when the worst leg of the global financial crisis battered consumer confidence.

'We should be less fearful than we were six months ago, but I don't think we should be exuberant yet. The resale markets in Canada are very strong. May numbers were pretty good, and June numbers will be even better,' said Will Dunning, an economic consultant who specializes in the housing market.

'But by July and into the fall there will be an offset of considerably slower activity. I don't think it's likely to go off a cliff. It'll depend on what happens in employment and the broader economy, and how that affects confidence.'

Recent data suggests Canada's residential property market, which weathered the financial crisis much better than its hard-hit U.S. counterpart, has been thawing for several months.

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The latest Canadian Real Estate Association data shows May resale home prices rose 0.4 percent to C$319,757 ($275,653), topping the previous record set a year earlier. It was the first year-over-year increase since May last year. And sales activity climbed for a fourth straight month.

The industry group, which represents more than 97,000 real estate brokers and agents, also cut its forecast for a drop in home prices this year and said it expected sales activity to trend higher.

Meanwhile, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., the national housing agency, forecast in its second-quarter outlook that new home construction is expected to decline to 141,900 units in 2009 but rebound next year.

Still, no one predicts the residential property market is headed back to the heady times seen between 2002 and 2007, when prices surged and outpaced income growth. In some cities, such as Vancouver, British Columbia, and Calgary, Alberta, home prices doubled and are now going through a sharp correction.

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